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Local Market Data Important to U.S. Newspaper Readership Estimations
Paper Examines the Value of Using Newspaper-Specific Readership Data in Place of a National Average, Case Study Demonstrates Potential Impact on Typical National Advertising Budget

Schaumburg, Ill. (November 1, 2005) – In a new white paper published last week, the Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) and Newspaper Services of America (NSA) examined the practice of modeling individual newspaper readership based on a national readers-per-copy (RPC) average. The paper examines typical readership calculation methods based on a national RPC because the resulting estimate may not accurately reflect the typical, individual newspaper’s local market and audience.

The joint ABC/NSA white paper was presented recently at the 12th biannual Worldwide Readership Research Symposium (WRRS), which was held in Prague, Czech Republic. The white paper and accompanying case study present evidence that the practice of modeling total readership on a national average RPC may pose a potential financial impact on newspapers and their advertisers as readership becomes a key consideration in advertising purchases.

Since the 1960s publishers have funded studies to measure readers, involving more than 30 different research suppliers, creating a comparability challenge when assessing metrics from different suppliers who may use different methods. To overcome gaps in local data, newspaper readership, or the advertising audience, is often modeled on a daily RPC average of 2.338, a national 2005 daily average estimated annually by the Newspaper Association of America. While the white paper does not dispute the national RPC, it reexamines the application of 2.338 RPC to newspaper-specific daily readership estimates.

The paper cites research from verified studies for specific U.S. newspapers participating in ABC’s Reader Profile (readership research verification) service, which serves one or more newspapers in 73 of the top 75 designated market areas (DMAs). The Reader Profile RPC calculation starts with verified readership research, divides it by audited paid circulation, resulting in a newspaper-specific RPC. Based on a survey of Reader Profile participants, ABC found that most individual newspaper RPCs do not reflect the national constant, instead falling in a range of anywhere from 1.4 to 4.4 daily RPC. Only 16 percent of the local newspapers mirrored the national average, implying that 84 percent of daily readership estimates may not as accurate as they could be if they used local data. In addition, the research showed that modeling readership on the national average daily RPC would underestimate 65 percent of the newspapers participating in its sample by as much as 91 percent. Further research showed similar results for Sunday modeled readership estimates. A study of Sunday Reader Profile statistics yielded RPCs ranging from 1.8 to 4.2. Only 14 percent of newspapers studied reflected the 2.561 national average RPC for Sunday editions.

A case study accompanies the white paper, highlighting a potential financial impact to newspapers, as well as their advertisers, who may find themselves in a readership-influenced purchasing scenario. A post-buy analysis for an unnamed major national advertiser included a review of $107 million in display investments placed in 140 individual newspapers, covering 87 different markets, with daily paid circulation between 10,163 and 1,113,470 copies.

Further analysis of audited Reader Profile reports for individual newspapers showed that actual, audited readership estimates were 9.1 percent higher for daily and 6.7 percent higher for Sunday. Over a 12-month period, the audited Reader Profile estimates were found to be 14.1 percent lower than the readership estimates based on the national RPC. This calculation resulted in a potentially significant impact to the advertiser’s budget. The study noted that the newspapers were also impacted by this situation. By appearing as a more expensive vehicle in the modeled approach, in a media neutral planning and buying environment, advertising dollars could have been diverted to other media channels, such as radio and television, instead of being retained in the newspaper medium.

“Newspaper readership is a highly valuable advertising metric,” says Jessie Solomon, president, NSA Media and co-author of the paper. “It complements the established audited circulation currency, especially for display advertisers. However, as NSA and ABC were able to show, our industry still has some work to do. Advertising buyers must have confidence and consistency from any media metric that is widely and frequently used.”

“In theory, practice and theory are the same,” says Kevin Campbell, director, marketing and sales, ABC, and also co-author of the paper. “In practice, they are not. It’s essential that our industry consider changing the practice, by embracing verified newspaper-specific readership, to successfully compete with budgets for broadcast media.”

About ABC
With more than 4,000 members in North America, ABC is a forum of leading magazine and newspaper publishers, advertisers and advertising agencies. The organization provides credible, verified information essential to the media buying and selling process. ABC maintains the world’s foremost electronic database of audited-circulation information and a growing array of verified readership, subscriber demographics and online activity data. To learn more, visit http://www.accessabc.com.